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El Niño’s Effect on Rice

Results show that excessive and deficient rainfall reduces rice yield by 33.7% and 19%, respectively.

During June-July of 2023, El Niño caused India’s precipitation to rise 60% higher than the typical season. More than 50% of the world’s population obtains its primary calories from rice. India produces nearly 20% of the world’s total production of rice. Rice production, especially in tropical climates, is critically dependent on climate variability. In India, Kharif monsoon rice yield declined in 65% of its regions due to climate variability. Studies show that excessive rainfall during the monsoon months has adversely affected crop yield in India.


Excessive rainfall occurs during the monsoons
Excessive rainfall occurs during the monsoons


Less production of rice means that the prices will inflate as well. This will make it harder for citizens to obtain their main source of carbohydrates on a daily basis, as those less affluent will have a harder time being able to afford rice when the monsoon continues. This will also affect other countries around the world because many people all over the world rely on rice for daily food intake. Since production is limited during monsoon season, there will be more demand for rice. Since there is higher demand and a lower amount of crop, the prices will continue to shoot up the longer the monsoon continues.


The inflation of rice prices as the crop's quantity decreases
The inflation of rice prices as the crop's quantity decreases

The Indian monsoon is sensitive to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which can have profound impacts on rice production in India and the global food supply. This has ultimately caused the prices of rice to skyrocket in India and other areas of South and Southeast Asia.

 
 
 

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